Newsletter issue: November and December 2015

Anna Esaki-Smith
Editorial Director
Education Intelligence British Council
Dear colleagues:

As we head towards the end of the year, we have two new research reports with which we are happy to close 2015. The first is The shape of international education to 2025, our yearly forecasting report which examines the landscape of global higher education through the next decade by gauging how household wealth and tertiary-aged populations impact student mobility. One key forecast of this report, which will be launched on 9 December, the eve of the Services for International Education Marketing conference in Edinburgh, is that despite drawing the highest numbers of international students, the US and the UK can expect market share to decrease by 2025 as education provision in traditional origin countries rises.
Next, we have a new schools report, Global expansion of UK boarding schools: a study of branch campuses, which examines the proliferation of overseas satellite campuses being established by UK boarding schools. The drivers behind this bold internationalisation strategy are explored, including the demise of the 'assisted places scheme' in the UK, the perceived quality of a British education and the buoyant mobility of UK expatriates. This report is available now, and we hope you find it useful.
Interestingly, a factor that influences both the future of international education and the global reach of UK boarding schools is the growth of the middle class, particularly in Asia. According to the OECD, Asia will represent the bulk of the middle class in 2030, estimated at 4.9 billion, so we plan to continue tracking the impact of this unprecedented pocket of growth.
With best wishes for the holidays,

Anna Esaki-Smith
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Here are our top picks from the news on international higher education.

A Swedish report on university leadership and the extensive collection of information on how 16 world-class universities are governed, has found evidence for internationalisation being one of the critical components driving these universities' progress towards scientific excellence.

In today's era universities are trying even harder to attract the attention of students, particularly overseas students. The university website is the modern prospectus - and the battle for students is taking place online. The BBC reports on Google's top searches for destinations where people are researching university information when looking at study abroad.

The German Academic Exchange Service, DAAD, and the University Grants Commission in India have launched a new joint programme to strengthen higher education partnerships between the two countries.

The Economist's first-ever college rankings

The Economist's first-ever college rankings are based on a simple, if debatable, premise: the economic value of a university is equal to the gap between how much money its students subsequently earn, and how much they might have made had they studied elsewhere. 

The globalisation of America's colleges

While the influx of international students has largely had a positive impact on US higher education, some are wary of the negative implications.
Revelations & Realities: New Research rnr

This new report builds on previous British Council forecasting work and focuses on extended projections of key international student mobility indicators, specifically demographics and economics, supplemented by a study of academic, economic, sociocultural and political factors. Research is based on a sample of the more than 50 largest higher education markets from a domestic enrolment and outbound mobility perspective. 

As the number of international students attending to UK schools continues to rise, some of the most well-known boarding schools have established branch campuses abroad. The number of overseas branches has increased steadily, responding to the growing demand of middle-class families eager to provide a quality education for their children. Many factors influence the growth of overseas branch campuses, and this report offers unique insights to help support the development of a sustainable economic model for this emerging sector.

Our live, ongoing Student Insight survey, helps us keep an ear to the ground when it comes to how study abroad decisions are made by students - over 190,000 of them, from more than 100 countries. Country-specific Student Insight reports examine the factors influencing prospective students when considering study abroad options and the information sources used throughout the decision-making process. Now, an updated Mexico and an all-new Azerbaijan have been added to the series.

As Brazil strives to sustain growth and development, technical and vocational education (TVET) and training will play an important role in helping to address skills shortages and move the country forward. This report explores further education and skills development in Brazil, and considers some of the limitations and opportunities for international training providers, suppliers and educators. It will be available in late December.
Exclusive preview: The shape of the world's mobile students to 2025

Edinburgh will be host to this year's SIEM Conference and the launch of the new biannual report, 'The shape of the world's mobile students to 2025: Considerations for the next decade in international education.' Expanding on previous British Council forecasting work, Zainab Malik, Director of Research at Education Intelligence, gives us a special preview of this new research ahead of the conference.

Q: What key indicators does this research examine? 
As in our previous forecasting work, this research looks at household wealth and the number of tertiary-aged students globally in order to project the major origin and destination markets for the next ten years. However, in this year's work we couldn't ignore that there are a growing number of drivers that will influence mobility - and our projections...

The spotlight in this newsletter is on the only country that was home to two Nobel Prize winners who lived on the same street! Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Nelson Mandela were recipients of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1984 and 1993 respectively and were neighbours in South Africa.

Darragh Murray
Darragh Murray has worked as a Business Intelligence Analyst for the international division of the University of Queensland since 2012. He devotes his working hours to getting dirty with data and uncovering its potential to inform strategic decisions and meet operational objectives when it comes to the managing the University's international activities. A holder of many university degrees, Darragh also has international work experience ranging from manning a bar in Ecuador and interning at the United Nations headquarters in New York City. His current interests include uncovering how to apply predictive modelling to international education, and how it might lead to better outcomes for international students living and studying in Australia.
What is your favorite conference and why?
Back in August 2015, I attended the annual Institute of Analytics Professionals Australia (IAPA) one-day conference in Sydney, which was certainly the most practical and mind-opening forum in terms of its coverage of innovations in data-driven decision making, and probably the most relevant conference experience related to my day-to-day work. But it's hard to go past the positivity and the cultural mix you experience at major international education conferences such as AIEC or EAIE. However, the most fun I've had at a conference was NAFSA in San Diego in 2014, where I met some incredible international educators, made a lot of solid professional connections, and even got to party on the deck of the USS Midway at San Diego's Navy Pier! That was incredible!
What is your current country of interest and why?
I could easily throw down half a dozen countries I plan to visit (or revisit) in the next few years: Myanmar, Colombia, Cambodia, Laos, Japan. But truth be told, it's actually Italy. I'm a pretty keen cyclist and I love the idea of riding some of the classic cycling routes around that country, such as the roads between Milan and San Remo, although I don't think I'll be wanting to try anything like the Passo di Mortirolo in the Alps! I'm heading back to Europe next year for holidays, so maybe I'll get a chance to hire a bike and realise this dream. 
What is your greatest challenge?
Professionally it has been trying to convince the international education industry of the value of using data-driven insight as the basis for strategic decision making - though I wish I had time to do much more data advocacy! Australia has been riding high in international education for quite a while, but with increased competition from other international education hubs - such as the US and Canada - these good times may not always be guaranteed. Strategic use of data and analytics to inform decisions will be a major factor Aussie educators will need to embrace to maintain a competitive edge in this market. Having said that, I'm fortunate to work in an office and institution where we have a very mature approach to data, and many skilled people keen to leverage the massive amount of information available on student mobility that will help us remain competitive while also improving the student experience for our foreign students.
What keeps you up at night?
Quite literally, sports. I've already mentioned my love of cycling, and non-friendly time zones mean many sleepless nights watching the Giro D'Italia and the Tour De France are common around my house during May and June each year. I am also a diehard fan of Arsenal Football Club, who play in the English Premier League, and I try to watch as many of their games as possible, but being in Australia, that usually means a 2 am kickoff and a lot of coffee the next day. 
What's your guilty pleasure?
More like guilty pleasures. Fortunately, my partner gracefully puts up with my addiction to buying bike parts, vinyl records and Ben and Jerry's ice cream (I have a major sweet tooth). However, I think I think my insatiable appetite for Seinfeld reruns is my most guilty pleasure. I must have watched all 180 episodes countless times, and obsess over every little bit of trivia. It doesn't help that I'm also addicted to listening to the brilliant Seincast - a podcast which pores over the minutiae of a show explicitly about minutiae. I could watch the same episode over and over again constantly, and I'd never get bored!
...that TVET is a priority for the government in Kenya and that according to the 2009 national census, more than eight million Kenyans aged between 17 and 24 years were eligible for training at tertiary institutions at mid-level technical and artisanal programmes?

Find out more from our report, Inside Guide: Kenya

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